BRUSSELS — NATO's most senior military commander is set to deliver a direct warning to Moscow on Monday: the alliance is ready to counter and, if necessary, decisively defeat any attack on its members. US General Alexus Grynkewich, the Supreme Allied Commander Europe, is expected to lay out his "theory of victory" at a security conference in Warsaw, in the alliance's most explicit public messaging about its war plans since Russia's invasion of Ukraine began (AFP via Arab News).
The address comes at a moment of rising anxiety across European capitals. Western officials say Moscow's covert campaign of sabotage, arson, cyberattacks and political interference against Ukraine's backers has grown bolder — and more reckless — in recent months. According to AFP, alarm spiked after an explosive-laden drone was discovered at a German airport, one of several incidents that have pushed the alliance's defensive posture back into the public spotlight.
What Grynkewich is expected to say
NATO officials briefed ahead of the conference say Grynkewich will present his "theory of victory" — a framework for how the alliance would respond if Russia tested it directly. The doctrine is built around a simple premise: preserve NATO's conventional and technological advantages, deter aggression before it starts, and win outright if deterrence fails.
The general is not expected to reveal operational details. NATO has traditionally kept its defence plans closely guarded, and officials stress that the speech is a strategic signal rather than a briefing. But the venue matters: Warsaw sits on the alliance's eastern flank, where Poland, the Baltic states and Romania have been the loudest voices demanding that NATO back its deterrence rhetoric with visible readiness. For the full background on the strategy document behind this doctrine, see our earlier coverage of the "Theory of Victory" plan.
The hybrid campaign driving the warning
Western intelligence assessments have for months pointed to an intensifying Russian "hybrid" campaign across Europe — a mix of sabotage, disinformation, cyberattacks and attempts to interfere in democratic processes. The discovery of a drone carrying explosives at a German airport was only the most alarming of a string of incidents that officials say show Moscow probing NATO's defences and the resolve of its member states.
Officials quoted by AFP warn that these attacks are becoming more reckless, with a real risk of significant loss of life if one of them goes wrong. The concern in Brussels is twofold: that the Kremlin believes it can operate below the threshold that would trigger a collective NATO response, and that a miscalculation could drag the alliance into the very confrontation it is trying to deter.
The warning also lands against a backdrop of parallel political pressure. Britain's Prime Minister has publicly accused Russia of interfering in the 2016 Brexit referendum, and Berlin and London have deepened their cooperation against Russian sabotage and cyber operations — signs that Europe's governments are treating the hybrid threat as a sustained campaign rather than isolated incidents.
A defensive message with a sharp edge
NATO insists it remains a defensive alliance with no intention of attacking Russia, and Grynkewich's office is careful to frame the doctrine in those terms. His spokesman, Colonel Martin O'Donnell, said last week that the theory of victory is "consistent with and grounded upon the alliance's deterrence and defence plans" — but added that, given an unsettled global security environment, NATO must "set conditions now to deter aggression and, if necessary, win if attacked."
That formulation is deliberate. It reassures the eastern flank allies who fear they would bear the brunt of any Russian test, while signalling to Moscow that the alliance has thought through exactly how a conflict would play out — and believes it would win.
The speech also fits into NATO's broader effort to keep defence spending and readiness high. The alliance recently conducted its annual nuclear deterrence exercise Steadfast Noon in Italy, another public demonstration that its deterrent is maintained and credible.
Why it matters now
The timing is not accidental. With diplomatic efforts swirling around Ukraine — including Washington's push for an energy ceasefire that Kyiv says it has not yet agreed to — NATO wants to make sure Moscow reads no softness into the diplomacy. Deterrence, the alliance's doctrine holds, works only if the threat of a response is believed. Grynkewich's Warsaw address is designed to make that belief as concrete as possible without firing a shot.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Grynkewich's "theory of victory"?
It is a framework developed under NATO's Supreme Allied Commander Europe setting out how the alliance would maintain its advantages, deter Russian aggression, and — if deterrence fails — defeat an attack on NATO territory. Details remain classified; the general is presenting the strategic concept, not operational plans.
Why is NATO warning Russia publicly now?
NATO officials say Moscow's hybrid campaign of sabotage, cyberattacks and interference across Europe has grown more reckless, including an explosive-laden drone found at a German airport. The alliance wants to signal that it has a plan to win if attacked, while reassuring its eastern flank members.
Is NATO planning to attack Russia?
No. NATO insists it is a defensive alliance with no intention of attacking Russia. The doctrine is framed entirely around deterring and, if necessary, defeating aggression against alliance members.
Why is the speech being given in Warsaw?
Poland is a frontline NATO member on the alliance's eastern flank and one of the strongest advocates for tougher deterrence against Russia. The venue is a deliberate signal of reassurance to allies closest to the threat.
