President Donald Trump is holding fast to his tariff regime even as voters turn decisively against it less than a month before the November 3 midterm elections. (Associated Press) A new AP/NORC poll finds that 64% of Americans believe he has gone too far with tariffs — up from 58% in January — while 69% say he is not meeting his promise to fix the cost of living. (Juneau Independent)
The numbers amount to a political gamble. Trump, who once called "tariff" the most beautiful word in the dictionary, has imposed the highest import duties on US trading partners since the Great Depression — and polling suggests voters increasingly connect those duties to the prices they pay at the store.
What the polls say
The AP/NORC survey of just over 2,100 adults, conducted September 24–28, found broad discontent: 68% disapprove of Trump's trade negotiations with other countries, and 64% say the tariffs have gone too far. The frustration crosses party lines — 52% of Republicans themselves say Trump is not meeting his promise to fix the cost of living.
A separate Cato Institute/Morning Consult survey of more than 4,100 voters in mid-August found that tariffs have gone fully mainstream as an electoral issue: three in four participants said they will consider tariffs when casting their midterm ballot, and 74% — including 66% of Republicans and 84% of Democrats — blamed Trump's tariffs for increased prices on items they buy at the store.
"It is a shocker that tariffs are becoming a mainstream concern among voters," said Scott Lincicome of the Cato Institute, the think tank's vice president of general economics. Democrats are listening: in North Carolina, former governor Roy Cooper is making opposition to tariffs a centerpiece of his affordability agenda in his bid for an open Senate seat, and candidates in Georgia, Iowa and Ohio are leaning into cost-of-living campaigns as well.
Where the tariffs stand today
Trump's tariff architecture has shifted repeatedly under legal and political pressure. In the biggest round last year, he levied what he called "reciprocal" tariffs on dozens of countries, citing a 1977 emergency-powers law that he said allowed him to act without Congress.
When the Supreme Court struck that approach down in February, the administration pivoted to older trade statutes. The primary tool now is Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, which lets the president impose duties on countries he deems to engage in unfair trade practices. The current duties run from 10% to 12.5% on imports from 60 economies, including major US trading partners such as the European Union, India, Japan, Canada and Mexico.
Analysts note the hidden costs: the administration also owes court-mandated refunds to businesses after the Supreme Court deemed the initial emergency tariffs illegal — refunds that are not necessarily passed on to consumers, meaning shoppers paid the higher prices either way.
Why it matters for the midterms
The cost-of-living crisis has become the defining economic backdrop of the midterm campaign, where Trump's approval has already been sliding to record lows. For a president who built his return to office on promises of affordability, having more than two-thirds of voters say he is failing on prices is a political wound.
Trade experts argue the tariffs are doing more damage than good to the economy they were meant to protect, raising input costs for American manufacturers and inviting retaliation. Trump, however, appears unmoved — betting that his tariff faith will survive a month of voting. The polls suggest that is one of the biggest gambles of his second term.
Frequently Asked Questions
What did the AP/NORC poll find about tariffs?
The September 24–28 poll of just over 2,100 adults found that 64% of Americans believe Trump's tariffs have gone too far (up from 58% in January), 68% disapprove of his trade negotiations, and 69% say he is not meeting his promise to fix the cost of living — with 52% of Republicans agreeing on the last point.
How are tariffs currently structured?
After the Supreme Court struck down Trump's original 1977-law emergency tariffs in February, the administration turned to Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974. Current duties range from 10% to 12.5% on imports from 60 economies, including the EU, India, Japan, Canada and Mexico.
Are tariffs an electoral issue for voters?
Yes. A Cato/Morning Consult survey in mid-August found that three in four voters will consider tariffs when casting their midterm ballot, and 74% blame the tariffs for higher store prices. Democrats in North Carolina, Georgia, Iowa and Ohio are campaigning heavily on affordability and tariff opposition.
