OPEC+ has decided to keep oil production targets unchanged for November, extending into a second month the pause it began in October. The decision was taken on Sunday by the group's seven core members — Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman — during a brief video conference that started at 11:00 GMT, according to Reuters.

The group is formally holding output targets steady while the war between the United States, Israel and Iran continues to strangle physical supply from the Gulf — a mismatch that keeps global crude prices above $100 a barrel heading into the northern hemisphere's heating season.

What was decided

According to a group statement reported by The National, the seven members agreed to "maintain September 2026 required production for November 2026" — a joint quota of roughly 31 million barrels per day.

The meeting mirrors the one held on September 6, when the same seven members left October targets untouched after six months of gradual increases. The group said the seven countries "will continue to hold monthly meetings to review market conditions," with the next meeting scheduled for November 1.

The Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee, a separate body that reviews market conditions without setting policy, also met on Sunday.

Why standing pat changes almost nothing

The formal targets have long stopped describing reality. OPEC+ formally finished unwinding 1.65 million barrels per day of voluntary cuts from 2023 in September, but most of the increases have remained on paper because of the Middle East conflict. A further 2 million bpd of cuts agreed in 2022 stays in place until at least the end of the year, and the group has pushed back its capacity review — crucial for setting members' 2027 quotas — to mid-November, because the war has thrown production potential into deep uncertainty.

The numbers are stark: the seven core members pumped about 25 million bpd in August, up 630,000 bpd from July, yet still roughly 5 million bpd below pre-war February levels, OPEC data shows. Gulf producers have seen exports fluctuate at 60–80% of normal levels in recent months, as export disruptions from the war persist.

The core disruption remains the Strait of Hormuz, which carried roughly a fifth of the world's crude oil and liquefied natural gas before it was effectively shut when US-Iran fighting began on February 28. Iran has said the strait will not reopen until seven conditions are met — including an end to fighting, the lifting of a US naval blockade, the release of frozen assets and sanctions relief — and indirect talks with Washington remain stalled.

Prices: Brent above $100, diesel still at record levels

Oil prices dipped slightly on Friday after European leaders agreed to US President Donald Trump's request to release diesel reserves — a decision the Chronicle covered earlier this week as Trump pulled back from a threatened US diesel export ban. But the relief was modest: Brent crude settled Friday at $102.25 a barrel, up from about $73 before the Iran war started in late February.

"Despite rising flows through the Strait of Hormuz, their output levels remain well below quota," said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo, adding: "Consequently, the oil market remains tight."

The diesel picture is even more acute. Record diesel prices — driven partly by repeated Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries and Russia's own export curtailments — have pushed the G7 to consider releasing up to 100 million barrels of crude and diesel over four months. The United States has meanwhile deepened its military commitment in the region, with a third aircraft carrier deploying to the Middle East as fighting widens.

What to watch next

  • November 1 meeting: The next monthly review could revisit the pause if market conditions shift — but sources say any output changes are unlikely before 2027.
  • Capacity review: The delayed mid-November review will determine how the 2027 quotas are distributed, and is a key marker for the group's long-term posture.
  • Hormuz diplomacy: Any progress in indirect US-Iran talks — or fresh escalation — will move physical supply far more than quota decisions do.
  • Demand season: Northern-hemisphere heating demand and refinery maintenance schedules will test how tight the market really is, as record US natural gas production shows the energy complex running hot on multiple fronts.

Key takeaways

  • OPEC+'s seven core members (Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, Oman) kept November oil output targets unchanged in a Sunday video conference.
  • It is the second straight month of standing pat, following the September 6 decision to leave October targets untouched.
  • The formal freeze matters little on the ground: the seven pumped 25 million bpd in August, about 5 million bpd below pre-war levels, with Gulf exports at 60–80% of normal.
  • The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively shut since February 28; Iran says reopening depends on seven conditions including an end to fighting and sanctions relief.
  • Brent crude settled at $102.25 on Friday, up from about $73 before the Iran war; about 2 million bpd of voluntary cuts stay in place through the end of 2026.

Sources

  • Reuters — "OPEC+ agrees in principle to keep November oil output targets steady, sources say" (October 4, 2026)
  • The National — "Opec+ keeps oil output targets unchanged for November" (October 4, 2026)
  • The Business Times — "Opec+ agrees to keep November oil output targets steady" (October 4, 2026)

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