The predominantly French-speaking province of Quebec votes on Monday in an election that could return separatists to power for the first time in more than a decade — yet the campaign has been defined not by independence, but by Donald Trump. Polls show the centre-right Coalition Avenir Québec on course for defeat after eight years in government, with the Parti Québécois (PQ) leading the race, while the Liberal Party of Canada sits second.
Table of Contents
- What the polls say
- The Trump effect
- A referendum — but not yet
- A headache for Ottawa
- Frequently Asked Questions
What the polls say
The final pre-election surveys told a remarkably consistent story. A Leger poll conducted in late September put the PQ at 30 per cent of voting intentions, ahead of the provincial Liberals on 26 per cent and a collapsed Coalition Avenir Québec on just 16 per cent — a staggering fall for the party of Premier Christine Fréchette, which has governed Quebec for eight years.
A Pallas Data survey over the same weekend landed on the same numbers for the PQ, and the seat aggregator Qc125 projected 67 seats for the party — three more than the 64 needed for a majority in the 127-seat National Assembly, with the Liberals on 37 and the CAQ reduced to almost nothing.
The numbers reflect exhaustion rather than nationalist fervour. Some 77 per cent of voters told Leger they wanted a change of government, with the cost of living, a strained health system, and the damage from American tariffs topping the list of concerns.
The Trump effect
In an extraordinary twist, the campaign in Canada's most independence-minded province was fought mainly over the American president. Quebec has been hit disproportionately hard by Mr Trump's tariffs, which have targeted its key export sectors — aluminium, steel and manufacturing. So central was the trade question that both leading parties framed the entire election as a choice of who could best stand up to Washington.
Fréchette made the case explicit from the start of the campaign: "He's the real adversary, he's the one who truly threatens Quebec … we have to fight against him," she said of Trump, presenting her government as the safest pair of hands in a trade war. For a premier trying to save her job, it was a bid to make the election a referendum on dealing with America rather than on her government's record.
A referendum — but not yet
PQ leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, widely known as PSPP, enters election day as the favourite to become premier — and he remains unambiguous about his party's ultimate goal: "to become a country," as he put it during a leaders' debate, arguing Quebec must "survive in French" inside an overwhelmingly English-speaking country.
But in a telling concession to reality, the PQ has shelved its original promise to hold an independence referendum in its first term. Plamondon now says no referendum will take place before January 2029, after Mr Trump's presidency ends — a recognition, analysts say, that Quebec is likely to cope better with the tariff onslaught while still inside Canada, and that a calm, informed debate is impossible under the current American administration.
The distinction matters: polls show only around 30 per cent of Quebecers actually back separation, down from nearly 50 per cent at the peak of the 1995 referendum campaign. A Synopsis poll found just 25 per cent would vote "yes" to sovereignty today. For many voters, backing the PQ appears to be a protest vote against the CAQ — not an endorsement of independence. As political commentator Valérie Gaudreau put it: "The desire for change is stronger than the desire for independence."
The party has even priced the project: Plamondon told Canadian media the referendum would cost at least $130 million — $20 million for studies and consultations early in the term, and $110 million to hold the vote itself in 2029 or 2030.
A headache for Ottawa
A PQ victory would nonetheless land hard in Ottawa. Prime Minister Mark Carney has stressed national unity as essential to managing the confrontation with Trump — and the election comes just weeks before the oil-rich province of Alberta holds a non-binding vote on independence. Rising separatist sentiment across the country, some analysts note, amounts to a diplomatic gift for Mr Trump, who has openly discussed breaking up Canada and absorbing it as America's 51st state.
Carney's own Liberal Party has run the only avowedly federalist campaign, with leader Charles Milliard presenting himself as the sole federalist in the race. But with the PQ within touching distance of a majority, Quebec could wake up on Tuesday under a government formally committed to the province's eventual secession — the first time in over a decade.
Related reading: For more on how Trump's trade policies are reshaping global politics, see our coverage of the final month of the US midterms and the G7's coordinated oil reserve release.
Sources: Reuters · The Japan Times · Firstpost
Frequently Asked Questions
When is the Quebec election being held?
The Quebec provincial election is being held on Monday, 5 October 2026, to elect all 127 members of the National Assembly.
Who is leading in the Quebec polls?
The separatist Parti Québécois (PQ), led by Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, leads the final polls with around 30 per cent of voting intentions, ahead of the provincial Liberals on 26 per cent and the incumbent Coalition Avenir Québec on 16 per cent.
Will the Parti Québécois hold an independence referendum if it wins?
The PQ remains committed to Quebec independence, but leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon has ruled out holding a referendum before January 2029, after Donald Trump's presidency ends, arguing the question requires a calm and informed debate.
Why has Donald Trump dominated the Quebec election campaign?
Trump's tariffs on aluminium, steel and manufactured goods have hit Quebec's export-dependent economy particularly hard, making trade with the United States the defining issue of the campaign for both leading parties.
